Marginal decline in consumer confidence in February. Its magnitude, however, was not enough to prevent the relative improvement in the consumer climate in the past two months.
On the other hand, the decline observed in February shows that the recovery of citizens’ expectations concerning the economy lacked the strength necessary to pull consumer confidence back to levels recorded prior to the signing of the Memorandum.
The Consumer Climate Index – CCI (57.2) showed a marginal decline (-2.8 points) relative to the previous month. Despite this slight drop in the relevant index, consumer confidence remains improved in the past two months, close to levels recorded in July last year (60.5), that is, immediately after parliamentary elections. The drop in February is due to the marked decline in the Consumer Expectations Index – CEI (69.9), which fell by 5.6 points relative to January. In contrast, the Current Economic Conditions Index – CECI (38.2) registered a slight improvement (+1.4 points) to reach the highest levels recorded since September 2011 (42.1).
Buying conditions (64.7) rose for the second consecutive month (+4.1 points relative to January), registering its highest level of the past 18 months (9/2011 – 2/2013). The proportion of consumers who believe that the current period is appropriate for major purchases of household equipment (furniture, electrical appliances, etc.) approaches 30%.
Assessments of personal financial situation (11.7) registered a new slight decline (-1.3 points in one month). The economic crisis is now affecting almost the entire population, with 9 in 10 (90%) consumers estimating that their financial situation is today worse than one year ago. Optimism about the future declined markedly.
Expectations of personal financial situation (41.2) fell marginally (-1.5 points) relative to January, whilst the deterioration in 12 months economy outlook (65) was sharper (-6.2 points relative to the previous month). The greatest decline was seen in 5 years economy outlook (103.4), which marks a drop of 9.2 points relative to January. It is worth noting that these expectations for the economy remain above 100 points for the third consecutive month, despite their significant decline. In other words, the majority of respondents (38% compared to 35%) remain optimistic about the economy’s long-term prospects. The optimism reported by citizens with regard to the outlook for the economy is significantly stronger than the optimism they feel about their personal financial situation. More specifically, just 1 in 10 (8%) express optimism at a personal level, whilst 1 in 5 (21%) feel optimistic about the future of the economy. Moreover, optimism rises as the time frame increases. Nearly 4 in 10 (38%) respondents believe that the economic situation will improve over the next five years.
The pessimism prevailing about the prospects for employment is almost universal. Nearly 8 in 10 (79%, +3% relative to January) expect a further rise in unemployment during the coming year. Following the relative improvement in the index recorded in February, citizens’ assessments concerning unemployment rates in the coming 12 months reverted to the negative levels recorded before elections in 2012. At the same time, just 6% of respondents consider it likely that they will be able to save some amount of money in the year ahead. During the past four months, price change expectations have remained at roughly the same levels. Over 1 in 2 (55%) respondents expect prices to rise over the coming 12 months.
