The initiative taken by George Papandreou in announcing on the evening of Monday, 31 October his intention to hold a referendum for the approval of the new loan agreement acted as a fuse for the further deepening of the political crisis.
The 30th anniversary of the socialists coming to power (18/10/1981) finds PASOK at the lowest point in its history since the restoration of democracy in Greece.
The attitudes of Greek public opinion toward the crisis and the euro have varied during the past four months in a way that would appear to reveal certain contradictions: Increasing ideological confusion, with the feeling of outrage still prevailing, pessimism about the future of the Eurozone, growing fear about the likelihood of Greece exiting the EMU.
The ‘rallying effect’ created in the ruling party’s favor by the agree-ment of 21 July, thanks also to the wholehearted support of the me-dia, lasted for just two weeks.
The July measurement of the Political Barometer reveals increasing polarization of the political and social climate. The Greek parliament’s enactment of the mid-term austerity program, the significant escalation of social protests and the severity of the police response have had a catalytic impact on the electorate.
The result of the parliamentary election of 16 September 2007 demonstrated, for the second time after the prefectural elections of October 2006, that during the first (uncompleted) term in power of the conservative New Democracy party there was no substantial shift in the electorate, nor was the clear lead of the ruling party ever disputed.
The sharp decline in the ruling party’s electoral support and the prime minister’s standing are causing a rapid transformation of the political scene. For yet another month, PASOK’s electoral support continued its free fall.
Before the introduction of the single currency, Greece had one of the highest percentages of social support for the euro (72%, Eurobarometer data). This figure was not only higher than the average for EU-15 (59%) but also higher than the average for the Eurozone countries (66%).
The new historical low recorded for the (social and) electoral support (vote estimate 32%) for the ruling party is testing not only its social cohesion but also its administrative capacity, while it is clearly not enough to secure a parliamentary majority in the event of an electoral ‘upset’.
The current seizing-up of the domestic two-party system has now surpassed all historical precedents. It bears no relation whatsoever to the tremors felt in the 1990s, nor to the recent slump of 2008.