Consumer sentiment stands at its highest levels since the summer of 2010, after rising significantly for the second straight month. However, the improvement recorded in January may be due, at least in part, to the seasonal variation of the relevant index.
The Consumer Climate Index – CCI (64.7) reached its highest level since August 2010 (71.4), after registering a sharp rise (+4.9 points) relative to the previous month. The Current Economic Conditions Index – CECI (43.5, +2.2 points compared to December) improved marginally, whilst the Consumer Expectations Index – CEI (78.9, +7.2 points relative to December) has shown a remarkable increase in the past two months, gaining a total of 13.9 points.
Propensity to buy (66.4) increased markedly, by 6.9 points, compared to December. In contrast, assessments of personal financial situation (20.5) is the only one of the component indices which declined (-2.5 points) in the current month. It is worth noting that 8 in 10 (81%) respondents believe that their personal financial situation has deteriorated over the past 12 months. Expectations of personal financial situation (53.1, +3.1 points compared to December) hit their highest level of the past 39 months (11/2010-1/2014). Citizens’ optimism about the future of the economy rose considerably.
More specifically, expectations for the economy (70.6) reached their highest level of the past 12 months (2/2013-1/2014) after registering a sharp increase (+8.6 points) in the space of one month, whilst expectations for the economy over the next five years (113.4, +8.4 points relative to December) hit a new historical high in the period since the signing of the Memorandum (5/2010-1/2014). Some 21% foresee a recovery of the economy during the coming 12 months and 42% expect such a recovery over the next five years.
Expectations for unemployment showed an impressive improvement. The percentage of citizens expecting a decline in unemployment over the next 12 months (13%), despite remaining at an extremely low level, is the highest since November 2009 (14%). Expectations for saving showed little change. Just 7% (+1% relative to December) hope they will be able to save some amount of money in the year ahead. In contrast, expectations about the course of prices deteriorated significantly, with only 1 in 10 (10%, -6% compared to December) anticipating a decrease in prices in the year ahead.
