Consumer confidence in Greece showed a significant improvement relative to December. The Consumer Climate Index – CCI (60) approached the levels of last July (60.5), registering an increase of 7.1 points in the space of one month. The Current Economic Conditions Index – CECI (36.8) remained at roughly the same levels as December, while in contrast, the Consumer Expectations Index – CEI (75.5) rose (+11.5) relative to the previous month.
By observing the movement of the index since December 2007, one can see that the improvement in consumer confidence during the last three months (11/2012 – 1/2013) does not alter, at least for now, the more general trends that were shaped after the signing of the Memorandum (5/2010). During the past 33 months (5/2010 – 1/2013), the index has remained at low levels, fluctuating around 42 points.
The festive season does not appear to have improved the propensity to buy (60.6, +1,9 points relative to December). Only 1 in 4 consumers (26%) believe that the current period is appropriate for major purchases of household equipment (furniture, electrical appliances, etc.). At the same time, assessments of personal financial situation (13) are extremely negative. Almost 9 in 10 respondents (88%) estimate that their personal financial situation has deteriorated in the space of a year. However, for the first time after a long period, they express restrained optimism about the future. Expectations of personal financial situation (42.6) registered a slight improvement (+4.8 points) relative to December, with just 7% of respondents expressing optimism about the coming year.
Optimism rises considerably with regard to the future of the economy. Expectations for the economy (71.3) reached the highest levels since October 2010 and expectations for the economy over the next five years (112.6) registered the highest value of the period since the signing of the Memorandum (5/2010 – 1/2013). It is notable that the long-term prospects of the economy constitute the only index of the five that make up the CEI which stands at over 100 points. This means that, with regard to the economy’s prospects over the next five years, respondents giving a positive estimate (43%) outnumber those giving a negative response (31%).
Assessments regarding unemployment, inflation and saving remain at extremely low levels. Some 76% (-7% relative to December) of citizens expect a further rise in unemployment during the next 12 months. Almost 6 in 10 (57%) estimate that prices will increase over the coming 12 months, while just 5% of respondents, a percentage very close to the historic low of the period 2007-2013 (4% in April 2012), hope that they will be able to save some amount of money in the year ahead.
In conclusion, consumer confidence recovered significantly during the past three months, mainly reflecting citizens’ optimism about the economy’s prospects. Nevertheless, for the time being, this recovery does not appear strong enough to restore consumer confidence to the levels recorded prior to the signing of the Memorandum.
