The sudden deterioration of the political and social climate is inevitably accelerating developments. Without exception, all the relevant indices of the Barometer registered an impressive change, while the respective percentages in most cases constitute new historical levels.
The continuing (for the 7th straight month) decline in the ruling party’s vote estimate (-0.5% relative to January) has thrown the political scene into something of a tangle. And this, despite the fact that the party retains a significant lead. As has been pointed out in the past, though without being understood by many party officials and political analysts, on account of the electoral law in force the size of the gap between the first and second party is of secondary importance.
The return to the daily political ‘routine’ of handling the economic crisis in the aftermath of the November local and regional elections has been very rapid. Despite the considerable weakening of the rul-ing party’s electoral support, as recorded – just one month ago – in the elections, perhaps in response to this, the government is now attempting to ‘sally forth’.
The poll result of 7 November may prove to be a watershed in the history of elections in Greece since the restoration of democracy in 1974 and a turning point in the process of transition from the traditional two-party system of the past decades to a new type of ‘bipolarity’.
Today’s election result will provide a very clear indication, not only of the relative strength of Greece’s political parties one year after the most recent parliamentary elections and six months after the signing of the Memorandum, but also – and above all – of the extent and depth of the disintegration of the party system which is taking place.
One year after the socialist PASOK party came to power, and six months after the adoption of the Memorandum, serious cracks have appeared in the ruling party’s electoral base and the image of George Papandreou.
Cabinet reshuffles have very rarely had any significant impact on the image of and social support for governments in Greece since the restoration of democracy in 1974, especially when they do not signal a change in policy.
The first three months of implementation of the measures set out in the Memorandum coincides with the completion of 10 months of PASOK governance. The significant decline in government support stemming from social discontent, in an extremely short space of time, is clearly reflected in the attitudes of citizens, not only toward the government policies being exercised (or not) but also toward the persons entrusted with their implementation.
The significant social and political developments that are currently in full swing are clearly reflected in Public Issue’s July Barometer. The negative performance of the ruling party and the prime minister has heightened uncertainty about political developments, but also about the endurance of the present government.
The present crisis of trust in governance could be described as structural. Moreover, it attests to a crisis of representation that is unprecedented since the restoration of democracy in Greece in 1974.