The new historical low recorded for the (social and) electoral support (vote estimate 32%) for the ruling party is testing not only its social cohesion but also its administrative capacity, while it is clearly not enough to secure a parliamentary majority in the event of an electoral ‘upset’.
The current seizing-up of the domestic two-party system has now surpassed all historical precedents. It bears no relation whatsoever to the tremors felt in the 1990s, nor to the recent slump of 2008.
The sudden deterioration of the political and social climate is inevitably accelerating developments. Without exception, all the relevant indices of the Barometer registered an impressive change, while the respective percentages in most cases constitute new historical levels.
The continuing (for the 7th straight month) decline in the ruling party’s vote estimate (-0.5% relative to January) has thrown the political scene into something of a tangle. And this, despite the fact that the party retains a significant lead. As has been pointed out in the past, though without being understood by many party officials and political analysts, on account of the electoral law in force the size of the gap between the first and second party is of secondary importance.